Stock Market Impact: India's Russian Oil Imports Hit 9-Month High Alongside US Uptick

India's imports of crude oil from Russia reached their highest level in 9 months in April 2025, and it is influencing the stock market notably, especially shares of India's biggest oil companies. 

As the imports from Russia have been going up, there has been a rise in the imports coming in from the United States too, reshaping India’s energy import landscape and influencing investor sentiment in the energy sector.

Suppose you run an oil refinery in India, and you have the option to buy crude oil from two suppliers: one from the Middle East and the other from Russia.

• Middle Eastern Crude costs ₹5,880 per barrel.
• Russian Crude costs ₹5,628 per barrel — saving you ₹252 per barrel.

Assuming that your refinery produces 1 million barrels of oil per month, here's how the expenditure adds up:

By opting for Russian crude, the refinery saves ₹252 million a month. During a year, this saves ₹3,024 million (₹302.4 crore). This is the reason why Indian refineries are so keen on importing more Russian oil — it gives them more profits, which increases their stock prices.

Russia's Crude Oil Imports Into India Reach Record Levels

 imports of Russian crude oil per day reached 1.92 million barrels in April 2025, up by 2.1% from March. This is the highest volume of oil imports from Russia since July 2024. As a result, Russia currently supplies 39.3% of India's overall oil imports, an increase from 35.7% a month before. 

Read More – The Future of International Trade: Understanding the Impact of Global Policies

This increased movement towards cheaper Russian oil is one of the primary drivers of Indian refiners achieving better margins.

Here's how the Russian oil imports have increased:

India is Also Increasing Its Imports from the U.S.

In addition to Russian oil, India’s imports from the U.S. have also increased, reaching an eight-month high in April. This increase in U.S. imports serves to diversify India's sources of oil and hence reduce its dependence on a single area. 

Such diversification allows refiners more flexibility in choosing crude oil that best suits their needs.

How the Surge in Russian Oil Is Impacting Indian Oil Stocks

The rise in Russian oil imports has had a beneficial effect on shares of India's major oil companies – IOC, BPCL and HPCL – since refiners, receiving cheaper crude, are enhancing their refining margins and opportunities to profit, thus attracting investor interest.

In one example, BPCL has been increasing its use of Russian crude, which is around $3 a barrel cheaper than crude priced from the Middle East, which will save BPCL millions of dollars, while investors are reacting positively, pushing BPCL's share price higher.

Here's a quick rundown of BPCL's plan:

But There Are Some Risks Ahead

Though the current scenario appears to be on the brighter side, there are a few risks that Indian refineries must be aware of. If there are heavier sanctions imposed upon Russia or an international oil price hike, then even the price of Russian oil is likely to appreciate, thereby pressurising Indian refiners' margins. 

That can make it costlier for Indian oil players and can hit their share price as well.

Here's the list of possible risks:

Dalal Street Reacts: Oil Stocks Catch Fire

As India imports more discounted oil, investors on Dalal Street are already cashing in. The energy sector — particularly oil refiners — has seen a strong upswing in stock prices, thanks to improved profit margins.

There are several reasons why investors are so excited now:

• Lower crude costs reduce companies' costs.
• Refining margins that increased profitability.
• Higher profitability increases shareholder happiness.

Let us look at the recent price and performance of some of the larger oil companies.

Stock Performance Comparison: March 28 vs. April 30, 2025

Note: Prices are approximate based on available data.

And it’s not just about crude oil. BPCL also reported that by replacing expensive Middle Eastern LPG with cheaper U.S. supplies, they expect a gain of $20 to $30 per metric tonne.

Also Read - Market Dynamics: This situation reflects the complexities of global oil trade and pricing

In simple terms, oil companies are spending less and earning more, and the stock market is responding in kind.

For retail investors and analysts, these signals are clear: oil stocks are heating up — and not just because of summer.

Conclusion

India’s increased imports of cheaper Russian oil have had a positive impact on the stock market, particularly for major oil 

companies like BPCL, IOC, and HPCL. By shifting to Russian crude, Indian refiners have been able to cut costs, boost refining margins, and improve profitability. 

As a result, stock prices have risen—BPCL’s share price, for example, increased by 5.06% from March 31st to April 30th.

While the outlook is positive, there are still risks, including the possibility of new sanctions on Russia or fluctuations in global oil prices. These could affect refining margins and, in turn, stock prices. Nevertheless, Indian oil stocks are looking strong for now, thanks to improved earnings.

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