Will The RBI Cut the Repo Rate By Another 25bps? What Does It Mean For Your Loan EMIs?

As inflation in India continues to stay well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4%, and economic growth remains robust, monetary authorities are contemplating further interest rate easing. 

Most recently, a report from Union Bank of India (UBI) suggested that the RBI may cut the policy repo rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 5.00% at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for February 4–6, 2026, representing a continuation of the easing cycle that began in 2025.

This prospective move comes on the back of a 25 bps cut at the December 2025 MPC meeting, which brought the repo rate down to 5.25% and followed a series of reductions the RBI enacted throughout 2025 as inflation remained subdued and economic activity stayed resilient.

The decision to potentially reduce rates further is significant for borrowers and lenders alike. It may shape credit costs, investment decisions, and wider economic momentum as India navigates a low inflation environment while still supporting growth.

What Is the Repo Rate and Why Does It Matter?

The repo rate is the benchmark interest rate at which commercial banks borrow short-term funds from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) against government securities. When the repo rate decreases, it becomes cheaper for banks to borrow, potentially leading to lower lending rates for businesses and households. 

Conversely, a higher repo rate makes borrowing more expensive and can slow demand.

A cut in the repo rate is typically aimed at stimulating credit demand, encouraging investment, and supporting economic growth, especially when inflation is calm and consumer prices are stable. 

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets the repo rate under the RBI Act, balances inflation control with growth objectives throughout the year.

In 2025, the RBI has already moved decisively to ease monetary conditions as inflation eased deeper below the upper tolerance of the target range, prompting markets to anticipate more room for cuts in early 2026.

Why the RBI Is Considering Another Rate Cut?

Economic conditions over the past several months have created a backdrop suitable for further easing. Analysts cite three major drivers:

1. Benign Inflation Trends

Multiple reports indicate inflation has been very low, well within the RBI’s comfort range — in late 2025. When underlying price pressures are subdued, especially after accounting for one-off influences (like the contribution of gold prices on Consumer Price Index), core inflation appears modest. This gives the RBI breathing room to lower borrowing costs without stoking excessive price spikes.

2. Robust Economic Growth

India’s real GDP growth has remained strong. Recent central bank and government forecasts show expansion of around 7.0%+ in FY26, with healthy private consumption and investment demand. A stable growth outlook supports the RBI’s tolerance for prudent easing while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

3. Dovish Policy Guidance

In communications accompanying its rate decision in December 2025, the RBI maintained a “dovish” stance, signalling that it is cautious about inflation risks but open to supporting growth. This has emboldened analysts to predict that the central bank may deliver a final 25 bps rate cut in February or April of 2026, potentially bringing the terminal repo rate to 5.00%.

However, economists caution that the precise timing and magnitude of this step remain uncertain. One reason is the pending revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) base years, scheduled for release in February 2026, which could influence the MPC’s assessment of inflation and growth dynamics.

How the Rate Cuts Have Unfolded: A Quick Look

To provide context on how India’s monetary policy has eased over the past year, here is a compact overview of recent repo rate changes:
 

This easing trajectory reflects a deliberate shift by the RBI to reduce borrowing costs while inflation remained below the nominal target. A further cut to 5.00% would bring the repo rate to its lowest level in decades, potentially boosting credit demand, lowering loan EMIs, and stimulating investment across sectors.

What This Means for Consumers and Markets?

If the RBI does cut the repo rate to 5%, the implications could be broad:

1. Borrowers Could Benefit

Lower repo rates can translate into reduced lending rates for home loans, auto loans, and personal credit, easing the cost of debt for households and businesses alike. Over time, this may boost durable goods spending and investment activities.

2. Financial Markets Respond

Typically, lower benchmark rates can support stock markets (especially rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking) and may help reduce yields on government and corporate bonds as liquidity conditions improve. 

Recent liquidity operations by the RBI, including large open market purchases and currency swaps, have been instrumental in keeping yields low.

3. Economic Growth Support

With inflation under control, a lower repo rate can enhance confidence among corporate borrowers and consumers, providing a tailwind for GDP growth in the coming quarters.

However, the timing of the next cut may also depend on incoming data, particularly the revised CPI and GDP base figures. If these indicators show unexpected inflationary pressures, the RBI may prefer to hold rates steady, even if the broader environment remains accommodative.

What Analysts Are Saying?

Different financial institutions and economists have slightly varied outlooks:

• Some analysts believe the February 2026 meeting could deliver the final 25 bps cut, bringing the repo rate to 5.00%.
• A few research houses suggest the RBI might wait after February’s data revisions and only cut in April 2026, preserving flexibility.
• Others argue that while inflation is under control, the RBI may choose to prioritise liquidity and transmission improvements over further rate cuts, especially if global risks or external demand slowdown intensifies, making a pause more likely in early 2026.

A Critical Policy Juncture Ahead

As India enters 2026, monetary policy watchers will keep a close eye on the February MPC meeting. A repo rate cut to 5.00%, as suggested by the UBI report, is not a certainty, but it is a plausible outcome given current inflation trends, robust growth data, and the RBI’s dovish guidance.

For borrowers, this could mean cheaper loans; for businesses, reduced financing costs; and for markets, continued support for credit expansion. However, the RBI’s decision will hinge critically on upcoming inflation and growth data, especially post-revision CPI figures, which carry the potential to significantly influence the policy stance.

In essence, the RBI is balancing the dual mandate of price stability and growth support, and if inflation remains subdued while other macro indicators stay healthy, further easing remains on the table as India navigates a cautious yet pro-growth monetary path.
 

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