IMF Set to Lift India’s Growth Outlook Close to 7%, Signals Gita Gopinath

The International Monetary Fund is expected to revise India’s GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal year closer to 7%, according to former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath. Speaking on December 9, Gopinath said India’s economy has outperformed expectations following strong second-quarter growth data. 

The IMF had raised its projection to 6.6% in October, but that revision came before the July–September numbers were released. With India continuing to show resilience amid global headwinds, the IMF India growth forecast is once again under discussion among economists, policymakers and investors.

Strong Quarterly Numbers Are Forcing a Rethink

India recorded GDP growth of 8.2% in the July–September quarter, prompting several multilateral agencies, brokerages and economists to upgrade their outlook for FY 2025–26. Gopinath noted that the IMF’s October forecast revision did not account for these numbers, leaving room for a further upward adjustment in the next update. She said India is performing better than expected before the global economic disruptions triggered by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty.

The former IMF official also highlighted that global growth has remained resilient despite trade barriers. According to her, increased investment in artificial intelligence has helped offset the negative impact of tariffs worldwide. India, supported by strong domestic demand, public infrastructure spending and improving private investment sentiment, has benefited from these trends. This has strengthened expectations that the IMF India growth forecast could be revised closer to 7%.

Economic optimism has also improved credit demand, with consumers increasingly exploring financing options through platforms such as LoansJagat, which provides access to personal loans and other credit products linked to economic expansion. As growth prospects improve, loan demand typically rises alongside household and business confidence.LoansJagat: Debt Consolidation Loans & Loan Marketplace (Official)

India’s Recent Growth Indicators

How the Narrative Shifted Over the Past Year

India’s growth outlook has evolved significantly over the past year. In early 2024, concerns over global trade fragmentation, high inflation and tightening financial conditions weighed on projections. However, steady domestic consumption, robust government capital expenditure and services sector strength changed the trajectory.

In its October 2024 World Economic Outlook, the IMF upgraded India’s growth estimate to 6.6%, reflecting improved fundamentals. This development was reported by Business Standard, which quoted Gopinath as saying that stronger data could push the forecast even higher in the next review
(https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/imf-may-raise-india-growth-forecast-gita-gopinath-124120900123_1.html). 

Since then, additional data has reinforced the case for optimism. Gopinath also addressed global trade tensions, stating that tariffs have raised prices in the United States and pushed inflation up by around 0.7 percentage points. 

However, she suggested the US is nearing peak tariff levels due to legal challenges, political considerations and affordability concerns ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Despite these global risks, India remains comparatively well positioned, strengthening confidence in the IMF India growth forecast.

Global Factors Shaping the Outlook

Key Observations From Gita Gopinath

Gopinath said India is “doing better than was predicted before the crisis” and expects the IMF to revise its estimates when it reassesses growth projections. She added that while tariffs remain consequential for the global economy, resilience and technological investment have softened their impact. 

Her comments were also reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, which highlighted India’s improving macroeconomic outlook
(https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/imf-likely-to-upgrade-india-growth-forecast-gita-gopinath/article69063184.ece). 

Conclusion

India’s consistent economic outperformance and global resilience are paving the way for a possible upgrade in the IMF’s next growth forecast. 

A near-7% projection would further cement India’s status as the fastest-growing major economy.
 

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