India-Pakistan War: What Happens To The Rupee's Value?

We can see that recently markets have seen a sharp reaction to escalating tension on borders. The local currency saw its worst single-day loss in over two years.

Recently, the local currency dropped 84 paise to settle at ₹85.61 per US dollar. This sudden drop wiped out all gains made earlier this year.

Rakshit has a child named Kritika. She is pursuing her master's from Canada. He is required to send her $15,000 for the same. Last week the cost would have been ₹12,71,550 at ₹84.77 per dollar.

Now, at ₹85.61, the same payment would need ₹12,84,150. You can see that it is an increase of ₹12,600 without any change in the dollar amount.

The Connection Between War And Rupee

The currency market reacts as soon as military actions begin or border strikes are reported. The average fall in local currency ranges between 1% to 2% in just the first few trading sessions.

We can see from past incidents that the local currency often depreciates during such situations.

Movement Of Currency In May 

We can see in just one day that the rupee dropped from ₹84.77 to ₹85.61, after Operation Sindoor. 

As per the reports of FXStreet and Business Standard, the ₹86.50 mark is now a primary level traders are watching. 

Reasons Behind Fall In Rupee

1. Foreign Investors Are Taking An Exit 

In just two days, we can see that the Foreign Institutional Investors have sold securities worth approx. ₹7,800 crore. 

Due to loss of such an amount, the value of the rupee falls due to less availability of dollars in the market.

2. Oil Prices Jump

Global crude prices have increased by $4 per barrel during a tense situation. It increases the import bill, pushing down the local currency.

3. Risk Of Trade Disruption

We all know that nowadays, security has tightened, and border rules have become stricter. Such rules have slowed down the exports. Importers, mainly in technology and machinery, are also facing trouble. This gap is the rising demand for US dollars.

What Does It Mean for You?

1. Education in Foreign Countries Becomes Expensive

If you or your family member is studying abroad, and you support their education from India. So, now with the fall in rupees, things will become expensive for you. As of now, you will have to send more rupees for the same amount of USD.

2. Travel To Foreign Countries

You can see that with just a decrease of ₹1, your family’s trip to Europe now would cost ₹19,000 to ₹24,000 more per person. However, this is not an exact amount; it will depend on your travel plan.

3. Imports Get Costlier

Items such as smartphones, laptops, and premium vehicles see a rise in prices because of costlier imports.

Is There Any Positive Side?

The following sectors generally benefit from a falling rupee:

What Do Experts Predict?

Let’s look at the predictions made by financial institutions for the rupee in the coming weeks:

Final Thoughts

The war-like situation between India and Pakistan has shown us how vulnerable currency markets are to sudden shocks.

In just two sessions, the rupee has already lost nearly 1.5%. However, it can recover temporarily. The trend mainly depends on the ground situation and the central bank's response. 

If you are dealing with overseas payments, you are advised to hedge or make payments early. For exporters, this may be a short window of benefit.

In such situations, we can only depend on predictions from experts, as nothing is specific. 

FAQs

1. Is it a good time for me to send money internationally?

Yes, you can. If it is possible for you to send it early to avoid further loss.

2. Should I postpone my trip to foreign countries?

Yes, if possible you must postpone it.

3. What is the current rate of exchange?

On 10^th May, 2025 the market closed at ₹85.35.

4. Which industry takes advantage of falling rupee value? 

Industries based on exports such as IT and pharma.

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