Japan Thinks India’s Boosting Economic Strength; Rewards (+) Sign on Long-Term Credit Rating

Japan’s Ratings and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has raised India’s long-term sovereign credit rating from BBB to BBB+, while reaffirming a Stable Outlook. 

The Finance Ministry of India welcomed this as the third upgrade in five months, citing growing global confidence in India’s macroeconomic fundamentals, fiscal discipline, and external stability. This upgrade follows earlier ones by Morningstar DBRS in May and S&P Global in August of 2025.

What Led to the R&I Upgrade & How India Compares Now?

To understand the significance of R&I’s action, it is helpful to look at the recent history of India’s sovereign rating changes in 2025 and what key metrics the agencies have cited. Before the table, note that agency credit ratings depend heavily on economic growth, fiscal deficits, external balance (trade, remittances, current account), debt ratios, and government policy deliverables. Following the table, we’ll summarise what these changes imply.
 

Summary of Table & Implications

From the table above, three things stand out. First, India has moved up in sovereign rating agencies in a relatively short span, three upgrades in five months, which is rare for a major emerging economy, especially in a time of global economic uncertainty. 

Second, the reasons given by all agencies converge around fiscal discipline, strong growth (especially domestic demand), and external sector stability (trade, remittances, forex reserves). 

Third, though ratings have improved, India remains in the investment‐grade category; there are still hurdles ahead (managing debt, ensuring inflation remains controlled, keeping external vulnerabilities moderate). These upgrades are thus both recognition of progress and signals of expectations for continued performance.

What R&I Specifically Mentioned & Government Response

R&I’s upgrade is grounded in several areas where it perceives India has made significant improvements:

• Fiscal Consolidation: The agency observed that India’s tax collections have improved, subsidies have been rationalised, and the government is working to reduce the fiscal deficit.
   
• External Stability: Points such as a modest current account deficit, steady inflows from services and remittances, low external debt relative to GDP, and sufficient foreign exchange reserves were all cited.
   
• Growth Drivers: Strong domestic demand, a large demographic dividend, high public investment (in infrastructure etc.), and a stable business environment under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.
   
• Risk Acknowledged: R&I also flagged external risks such as US tariffs and potential revenue loss due to GST rationalisations. However, it believes these are manageable, given the dominance of domestic growth and reduced exposure in certain export sectors.
   

The Government of India welcomed the upgrade with a statement emphasizing that this further affirms global trust in the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and its medium-term growth potential. It committed to maintaining fiscal prudence, pursuing inclusive growth, and strengthening the external sector.

How India’s Ratings Now Stack Up: Comparison with Other Major Ratings Agencies

To put the recent R&I upgrade into context, here is how the major rating agencies currently view India as of September 2025, especially regarding sovereign rating and outlook.
 

Potential Impacts of the Upgrade

Upgrades in sovereign credit rating do more than decorate a statement. They have ripple effects across finance, investment, cost of capital, and how India is seen by global markets.

• Lower borrowing costs: With a better rating, sovereign bond yields tend to soften. Governments, corporations, and state entities may find it cheaper to raise funds abroad.
   
• Increased foreign investment: International institutional investors (sovereign wealth funds, pension funds etc.) often have rules or risk-limits tied to credit rating. A higher rating can unlock fresh inflows.
   
• Strengthened rupee & external confidence: With external metrics (reserves, current account, remittances) improving, India can better absorb global shocks (e.g., trade disruptions, supply chain volatility).
   
• Government obligations under scrutiny: Higher expectations. Agencies will likely monitor whether India sustains its fiscal consolidation, keeps inflation in check, manages subsidy rationalisation, and maintains infrastructure investment. Slippage may lead to negative outlooks.
   
• Private sector and markets benefit: Cheaper capital, more confidence in long-term projects, better terms of trade, etc.

Challenges That Remain

Despite strong reasons for celebration, there are some caution flags that analysts and rating agencies continue to watch:

• Debt-to-GDP ratio still high, particularly government debt. Although progress is being made, the ratio remains elevated.
   
• Exposure to external risks, such as US tariff changes, global commodity price fluctuations, or disruptions to trade. Even though India is less dependent on some risky export sectors, no economy is insulated.
   
• Revenue volatility especially from taxes and commodities, and the need to rationalize subsidies without causing adverse social or inflationary impact.
   
• Need for sustaining growth: Inflation control, infrastructure bottlenecks, policy continuity, and global uncertainties (geopolitics, supply chain disruptions) will test this upgraded rating.

Conclusion

The R&I upgrade of India’s sovereign rating to BBB+ (Stable) in September 2025 is a major milestone. It is not only a recognition of recent progress — fiscal discipline, strong growth driven by domestic demand, external stability, but also a challenge to maintain that momentum. With this being India’s third sovereign rating upgrade in five months, the international community is signaling increased confidence in India's economic trajectory.

However, upgrades are not permanent rewards. Delivering on policy promises, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and navigating external headwinds will determine whether India climbs further in the sovereign rating ladder. For now, India stands stronger in the investment-grade spectrum; the task ahead is to stay on that path and continue strengthening the foundations of sustainable growth.

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