Indian industry prepares for important discussions as the central bank weighs tariff shocks in its next monetary policy meeting.

The streets of Surat and Tiruppur are quieter than usual. Export hubs that once ran full shifts are cutting hours. Behind this slowdown lies the weight of higher US tariffs on Indian goods.

Ahead of its September 2025 monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India is holding talks with industry to assess the damage. The meetings will focus on the US tariff impact on the Indian economy, the pressure on exporters, and the support measures that may follow.

RBI Engages Industry Ahead Of Policy Review

The Reserve Bank of India has planned discussions with exporters and industry groups before the September 2025 policy review. The objective is to capture ground-level reports from those directly hit by tariff shocks. Textile mills in Tiruppur, diamond cutters in Surat, and small apparel units in Noida have started scaling back production. Workers report fewer shifts.

Industry representatives told the Economic Times in August 2025 that exporters face a 30 to 35 per cent price disadvantage compared with suppliers in Vietnam and Cambodia. Buyers in the United States are shifting orders because of this gap.

Merchandise Trade Data Shows The Pressure

The official Annual Report 2024–25 of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, released in August 2025, reflects the ongoing strain. Exports fell, while imports also dropped, though the trade deficit improved slightly.

Merchandise Trade (US$ billion)	2022–23	2023–24	Growth (%)
Exports	451.07	437.07	–3.10
Imports	715.97	678.21	–5.27
Trade Balance (Deficit)	–264.90	–241.14	Improved

This table shows that merchandise exports declined even before the new tariffs arrived. The fresh US duties threaten to deepen that fall.

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US Tariffs Hit Goods And Services Together

The US tariff impact on the Indian economy is being felt mainly in goods. Yet services are also under indirect stress. American companies cutting orders in consumer goods can slow down demand for outsourcing and IT contracts.

The Commerce Ministry’s 2024–25 report highlights this contrast.

Services Trade (US$ billion)	2022–23	2023–24	Growth (%)
Services Exports	325.33	341.06	4.84
Services Imports	182.05	178.31	–2.05

Services exports grew in 2023–24 even as goods fell. This resilience helps balance India’s trade account. But it cannot fully cover the gap left by merchandise losses.

Exporters Demand Support From Banks

Export promotion councils and MSMEs are pushing for easier credit. Small exporters in labour-heavy sectors argue that working capital is drying up. With margins already squeezed by tariffs, access to bank loans becomes critical.

Government sources suggest that India trade talks ahead of RBI policy include the Commerce Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office. Together, they are working on relief options such as interest subvention and faster disbursal of export incentives.

Overall Trade Numbers Underline The Risk

The combined picture of merchandise and services trade shows why exporters are nervous. The following data, from the Commerce Ministry report, refers to total imports rather than overall trade value.

Overall Trade (Merchandise + Services)	2022–23	2023–24	Growth (%)
Total Trade Value	898.01	856.52	–4.62

This fall of more than 40 billion dollars underlines the weakness in India’s external sector. Any further shock from tariffs could worsen the gap.

RBI Flags Tariffs As A Risk To Growth

The impact of US tariffs on RBI policy review is already visible in official commentary. The August 2025 RBI monthly bulletin flagged tariff pressure as a downside risk. While projecting GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for 2025–26, the bulletin noted that higher barriers could lower this estimate.

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Analysts quoted by Reuters on 29 August 2025 estimated that prolonged tariffs could shave 0.7 to 0.8 percentage points off GDP growth. This drag would hit jobs and investments directly.

Key Indicators Ahead Of September 2025

The following numbers capture the backdrop as the RBI prepares for its September policy review.

Selected Indicators (FY 2024–25 so far)	Value
Retail Inflation (July 2025)	1.55%
Projected GDP Growth FY 2025–26	6.50%
Tariff Impact on Exports to US	48 bn dollar risk (55% of US-bound exports)

Low inflation offers room for monetary flexibility. But tariff-related risks tie the RBI’s hands.

The direct impact of tariffs is visible in labour-intensive clusters. Tiruppur knitwear exporters have reported scaling down operations. Jewellery units in Surat are trimming production. Apparel workshops in Noida are reducing shifts.

These hubs employ lakhs of workers. When orders fall, the first effect is fewer shifts, followed by layoffs. This human cost explains why RBI is listening closely to industry voices.

Conclusion

The September 2025 meetings between the RBI and industry are more than routine consultations. They come at a time when the US tariff impact on the Indian economy is clear in trade data, factory floors, and GDP projections.

The RBI talks with industry on US tariffs will feed into the RBI September policy review, shaping decisions on credit and liquidity. With India trade talks ahead of RBI policy, the government is preparing both immediate relief and longer-term reforms.

The outcome will decide if exporters get breathing space and if workers in hubs like Surat and Tiruppur can hold on to their jobs. The numbers are stark, but the choices made in the coming weeks will determine how resilient India’s trade story remains in 2025 and beyond.

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