Brent Crude at $79.60/bbl on June 19 as US-Iran MoU Starts 60-Day Final Deal Countdown; Gold Down 1.2%

Key Takeaways

• Brent Crude was trading at $79.60 per barrel on June 19, 2026, declining by 0.31% to its previous closing as the market monitored the 60-day window of the final peace deal amid the US-Iran 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed at the G7 in France.
   
• The price of crude fell by almost 19% in May 2026, its worst month since COVID. The final deal must be signed within 60 days, extendable by mutual consent per the MoU text.

Why is Brent Crude still at $79.60/bbl after the US-Iran Peace MoU?

At the G7 summit in France, President Donald Trump signed the US-Iran 14-point MoU. The key provision of which is the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which around 20% of the world’s crude oil supply transits. 

Despite the deal, Brent crude held at $79.60 per bbl at 7:40 am IST on June 19, 2026. This was 0.31% lower than the previous close of $79.42 per bbl. WTI was flat at $76.62 per bbl as of 7:44 am IST on June 19, per the same data.

Brent crude fell more than 4%, and WTI fell more than 4.5% when the deal was first announced, both touching their lowest levels since early March 2026. Prices remain well below the conflict peak of nearly $120/bbl but have recovered from the $76-77 per bbl range. 

Pre-conflict levels were $71-72 per bbl. COMEX gold fell 1.2% to $4,193.30 per ounce on June 19, from $4,245.90 per ounce at the previous close, as per COMEX data. DXY of the US dollar was up 0.01% at 100.864, which made people buy less gold because the stronger the dollar is, the more expensive gold becomes.

US-Iran Deal: What Effect Will It Have on Petrol and Diesel Prices in India? 

In May 2026, petrol prices in Delhi crossed ₹102.12 per litre, and diesel rose to ₹95.20 per litre. This follows the cumulative hikes of ₹7.38/litre and ₹7.52/litre since May 15, driven by the West Asia conflict and rising crude costs.

A fall in Brent crude can directly ease this pressure. As LoansJagat notes on fuel price impact, a ₹10 per litre petrol hike raises a regular commuter’s monthly fuel cost by ₹230 and their annual fuel bill by ₹2,760. The reverse holds that if crude prices fall below $79/bbl and OMCs pass on the relief, millions of households could see meaningful savings every month. 

India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said this week that due to the US-Iran deal, “many of our problems will go away,” as reported by Bloomberg.
 

What do Experts say about whether the Peace Deal Will Actually Lower Oil Prices Further?

Markets are cautious, not celebratory. Karim Sadjadpour, Iran expert and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN, “The thorniest issues have been deferred for future negotiations, and I’m not terribly optimistic that they’re going to be resolved in a 60-day time frame.”

On what India should expect, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a June 16, 2026, report, “A rapid normalization in global oil and gas supply and shipping may ease India’s macroeconomic pressures, especially if crude oil prices fall below our base-case scenario of US$95/bbl for FY2027.”

Kotak also estimated India’s current account deficit could stay at 2.2% of GDP in FY27 under that scenario. However, experts caution that marine insurance premiums and risk-related shipping costs are likely to remain elevated even as energy prices soften, increasing the overall landed cost of energy imports. 

Conclusion

Brent at $79.60/bbl on June 19, 2026, reflects one clear reality that markets believe the deal, but not completely. The 60-day countdown now begins. For Indian households, every dollar crude falls below $79 translates into real relief at the petrol pump. Now, the other important landmark that needs to be noted is the demining process of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days from June 19. It will establish whether commercial shipping actually restarts or not.

FAQs

What was the consequence of the conflict that occurred between Iran and the US on the oil prices internationally?

The conflict started in February 2026 between the USA and Iran, resulting in an increase of the price of crude oil to more than $100 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 20% of the world’s oil, closed, stalling hundreds of commercial vessels and increasing freight rates, while at least cutting off global supply for 3+ months.

Where is Brent crude headed next with the US-Iran MoU signed?

Brent is at $79.60 per bbl on June 19, 2026, down around 40% from the conflict peak. It has not yet returned to the pre-war level of $71- $72 per bbl. A confirmed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days could pull prices further down toward pre-conflict levels.