Good News for India’s Banking Sector

In recent quarters, India’s banking sector has been witnessing cautious optimism. After a period of sluggish lending and rising stress, signs of recovery are becoming more apparent. This article explores how loan growth is expected to regain momentum, what structural and policy drivers are supporting this revival, and what challenges lie ahead, especially in terms of asset quality, stress pockets, and regulatory risks. 

The analysis draws on current forecasts, data from central agencies, and sectoral trends to present a balanced outlook through FY26 and beyond.

1. Forecasted Loan Growth: The Revival in Credit Demand

Nomura has projected that India’s system credit (loan) growth will accelerate to around 12 % year-on-year in FY26. This projection rests on an improving trajectory in asset quality, renewed confidence, and favorable policy tailwinds.
Unsecured retail lending—which currently constitutes roughly 10 % of system credit, may play an outsized role in this revival, as early delinquency trends show moderation in personal loans and credit cards.

However, this optimism is tempered by structural challenges. Some stress remains in NBFCs, small finance banks (SFBs), and microfinance portfolios. The microfinance sector, for instance, has seen a contraction of about 17 % year-on-year, reflecting a phase of cautious recalibration rather than aggressive expansion.

Add to this the fact that the broader environment for credit demand—the growth rate of GDP, investment, corporate capex, and consumption—must support this projected credit expansion. If macro growth stalls, the risk of underperformance increases.

That said, other models (for example, econometric projections) suggest India’s bank loan growth could trend even higher in 2026 and 2027, indicating upside potential if the recovery is sharper than expected.

In short, the base case path is one of moderate revival, but with room for both upside surprise or downside risk depending on macro and credit conditions.

2. Enablers: Policy, Liquidity & Support Measures

The potential rebound in loan growth owes much to a combination of government and central bank interventions, liquidity management, and regulatory tweaks.

2.1 Monetary Easing & Liquidity Comfort

The Reserve Bank of India has in recent sessions eased the monetary stance via repo rate reductions and cuts in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). These moves ease funding costs for banks, encouraging them to extend credit more freely. 

Simultaneously, banks have adequate liquidity buffers, enabling them to respond to increased demand without aggressively pushing deposit rates or resorting to external borrowing.

2.2 Regulatory Reforms & Incentives

Several regulatory initiatives enhance the environment for credit expansion:
 

• The RBI recently eased certain norms on infrastructure and project lending, reducing provisioning requirements, which should encourage banks to return to that segment.
   
• The government is promoting credit-linked schemes (especially for MSMEs, housing, and infrastructure) to channel concessional or prioritized credit.
   
• Regulatory forbearance or restructuring windows could provide breathing space to borrowers with transitional stress, thereby supporting growth without immediate defaults.
   

2.3 Revival of Demand & Consumer Confidence

As the consumption cycle strengthens—with rising incomes, moderate inflation, and tax relief measures—household demand for retail credit (personal, consumer durables, autos) is likely to rise. This will help banks lend more selectively in the retail space, especially if they can maintain prudent underwriting.

2.4 Public Sector Banks Reasserting Their Role

Public sector banks (PSBs), which had lagged in past cycles, are now better capitalized, more focused on recovery, and reasserting their role in credit growth. In FY25, PSBs recorded stronger growth compared to private banks, a reversal from past trends.

Stronger PSBs provide a counterweight to privately held institutions, enabling broader credit distribution across regions and sectors.

3. Risk and Stress Pockets: Vigilance Needed

While the outlook is broadly optimistic, several risk factors deserve close monitoring.

3.1 Asset Quality & Bad Loan Ratios

Banks’ gross bad loan ratio is currently at multi-decade lows, with the reported ratio in March 2025 being about 2.3 %.
However, under adverse macro scenarios, this could drift up to 5.3–5.6 %.
Hence, while baseline forecasts expect stability, downside scenarios present significant stress risks.

3.2 Unsecured Retail & Microfinance Stress

Credit cards, personal loans, and microfinance have borne the brunt of stress in recent quarters. For credit cards, early delinquency metrics (1–30 DPD) have improved—down ~120 bps year-on-year.

Microfinance, however, is still in a retrenching phase. The contraction suggests that risk awareness and selective underwriting are being prioritized over growth.

3.3 Divergence Among Lenders

Larger banks with strong balance sheets and diversified portfolios are better placed to ride the revival. In contrast, smaller private banks, some NBFCs and small finance banks may remain vulnerable to stress in niche segments or shallow capital buffers.

3.4 Macroeconomic & Global Shocks

A slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment, inflation surprises, or external shocks (e.g. commodity price volatility or global financial stress) could derail credit confidence. In such scenarios, defaults may rise earlier than anticipated, tightening bank risk appetites.

4. Segmental Trends: Where Growth Will Come From

It is useful to look at how different segments may contribute to the credit revival, in order to assess sustainability and risk.

Below is a table summarizing key trends across major lending segments:

Segmental Outlook & Challenges in India’s Credit Landscape
 

Before the table above, it’s useful for the reader to note that not all lending segments will grow uniformly; some will be more dynamic than others, and risk profiles differ sharply across segments.

After the table, we can draw the following observations:
The revival will likely be led by consumer and MSME credit, due to relatively lower ticket sizes, simpler underwriting, and direct linkage to demand cycles. Infrastructure and corporate segments may lag given the long gestation and project risk. Microfinance will probably remain cautious, repositioning itself to safer borrowers. Banks must balance growth ambitions against prudence in higher-risk segments.

Another table below illustrates how delinquency metrics are evolving across buckets (this is illustrative based on available data trends):

Movement in Delinquency Buckets (Indicative Trends)
 

Before this second table, the reader should recognize that delinquency metrics are early signals of stress and recovery — they show the health of the loan book before bad loans crystallize. After the table, one can conclude that improving trends in these buckets, especially in retail and microfinance, are positive harbingers, but must be watched carefully.

5. Strategic Implications for Banks & Policy Makers

Given the forecast and risks, several strategic priorities emerge:
 

• Prudent Underwriting: In segments such as unsecured credit and microfinance, rigorous credit assessment, dynamic risk pricing, and tighter credit discipline are essential.
   
• Diversification: Banks must avoid overconcentration in any single segment. A balanced mix across retail, MSME, infrastructure, and corporate will help absorb shocks.
   
• Capital Buffers & Provisions: Maintaining strong capitalization and countercyclical provisions will help absorb stress under adverse scenarios.
   
• Risk Monitoring & Early Warning Systems: Delinquency trends, real-time analytics, and stress testing must be refined to detect emerging strain.
   
• Policy Coordination: The central bank and government should synchronize fiscal and monetary support, ensuring credit schemes, sectoral incentives, and regulatory relief align with credit growth ambitions.
   
• Focus on Recovery & Resolution: Legacy non-performing assets (NPAs) must continue to be resolved or restructured, clearing the path for fresh credit flow.
   

Banks that adopt these strategic imperatives will be better placed to harness the tailwinds without exposing themselves to undue vulnerability.

Conclusion

India appears poised for a moderate revival in loan growth, with forecasts suggesting a return to 12 % year-on-year expansion by FY26. The rebound will be underpinned by easing monetary policy, liquidity support, regulatory facilitation, and hopeful signs of improving borrower behavior, especially in retail and MSME segments.

Yet, the path is not without turbulence. Asset quality must remain stable, stress in microfinance and unsecured segments requires vigilant management, and macro or external shocks pose real downside risks. For the credit revival to be sustainable, banks must pair ambition with discipline, prudent underwriting, strong capital buffers, and effective risk monitoring.

If policymakers and regulators remain supportive and macro fundamentals hold steady, the coming years could mark a renewed phase of credit-led growth in India—one that balances quantity with quality.

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LoansJagat Team

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