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Key Inisghts
India’s fertiliser subsidy is expected to reach an all-time high.
The subsidy burden was estimated at nearly ₹2 trillion, but it may now cross ₹3 trillion, significantly exceeding the FY27 Budget estimate of ₹1.79 trillion, according to the Department of Fertilisers.
Rising import prices of urea and other major fertilisers due to the West Asia crisis have substantially increased government spending pressures.
The strain on public finances is becoming increasingly serious.
If current estimates prove accurate, this would become the largest fertiliser subsidy in India’s history, overtaking the previous record of ₹2.51 trillion recorded in FY23.
The difference between government-controlled retail fertiliser prices and actual import costs continues to expand, placing direct pressure on subsidy allocations with import costs increasing by nearly 39–40%.
A sustained increase in subsidy spending may also reduce room for infrastructure and capital expenditure while adding to the fiscal deficit.
The table shows how India's fertiliser subsidy burden has escalated with the West Asia crisis.
India's latest DAP procurement was cleared at $930–$935 per tonne, significantly above the pre-war baseline of $667.50.
That single figure explains most of what is happening to India's subsidy arithmetic this year.
Indian farmers have not yet been directly affected by increasing global fertiliser prices due to global tension.
Urea is still being sold at ₹266.50 for a 45 kg bag, while DAP continues at ₹1,350 for a 50 kg bag, even though international import costs for urea have climbed close to ₹4,000 per bag at current rates.
The government is covering the entire difference through subsidies. HDFC Sky
Fertiliser supplies for the 2026 kharif season also remain stable, with available stock exceeding 51% of the total projected demand of 390 lakh tonnes.
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According to the Ministry of External Affairs, DAP inventories are currently nearly twice the levels seen last year, while NPK fertiliser stocks have also increased significantly.
This reserve cushion has been created through aggressive diversification of procurement sources. deccanheraldUitvconnect
Krishna Kant Pathak said that India must now move beyond depend on only subsidy support because that the country consumes nearly 70 million tonnes of fertilisers annually.
Such large dependence on imports leaves India highly vulnerable whenever global supply chains face disruption. IBTimes India
India has already started reducing dependence on supply routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 22 lakh tonnes of fertilisers imported through alternative channels.
A consortium-based procurement strategy has also helped secure 13.5 lakh tonnes of DAP and 7 lakh tonnes of NPK complex fertilisers, creating a stronger framework for future supply security.
Expanding domestic urea production capacity and increasing the use of nano-urea are being viewed as the most practical long-term solutions. deccanheralddeccanherald
India goverment protecting farmers via subsidy but this not the permanent solution for farmers. Goverment focus on expanding domestic fertiliser manufacturing and diversifying import sources are now important strategic priorities rather than optional policy choices.
What will be the effects of this expected burden of subsidies on fertilizers worth ₹1.92 lakh crore on the Indian economy?
It helps to provide essential social security for farmers, when on the other hand, it increases the national fiscal deficit.
Can the policy adopted by the Centre help corporations pass the burden of increased expenses on fertilizers and fuels to the farmers?
No, the policy adopted by the Centre will not help corporations pass the burden of increased costs to the farmers.
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