What is RBI Planning to Do to Revive The Value of Indian Rupees?

India’s central bank has stepped up its efforts to stabilise the rupee, employing a mix of direct intervention and strategic liquidity management to curb excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is increasingly active in offshore currency markets, signalling a more assertive stance as global headwinds, including rising US yields and geopolitical uncertainties, continue to exert pressure on emerging market currencies.

This article delves into the RBI’s recent defensive measures, the macroeconomic backdrop driving these actions, the potential implications for investors and trade, and how India’s foreign exchange management strategy has evolved over time.

1. The Rupee Under Pressure: Global Factors and Domestic Challenges

The Indian rupee has been hovering near record lows, weighed down by a combination of external and domestic pressures. The strength of the US dollar, fuelled by the Federal Reserve’s prolonged higher-for-longer interest rate stance, has led to capital outflows from emerging markets, including India. This has placed renewed stress on the rupee, which recently slipped past the ₹84 mark against the US dollar in offshore trading.

Adding to the strain, elevated crude oil prices and a widening trade deficit have intensified India’s current account concerns. Oil imports constitute nearly 30% of India’s total import bill, and any spike in prices directly impacts the rupee’s stability. Meanwhile, portfolio investors have been cautious, with net foreign portfolio outflows adding further downward pressure on the currency.

Domestically, while India’s growth remains resilient, inflation and fiscal imbalances pose secondary challenges. The RBI has therefore found itself walking a tightrope — ensuring liquidity support for growth while defending the rupee against speculative attacks.

2. RBI’s Offshore Strategy: Expanding Its Defence Perimeter

In recent months, the RBI has notably increased its intervention in offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets. These offshore FX derivatives allow traders to speculate on the rupee’s movement without physically trading it in India, making it harder for the RBI to maintain control through conventional channels.

By entering the NDF market directly — a strategy first deployed during the 2019 volatility episode — the RBI aims to reduce the gap between onshore and offshore rupee rates. The widening of this spread typically signals speculative positioning against the rupee. Bridging it helps restore confidence and curb arbitrage-driven volatility.

The central bank’s interventions have been complemented by a careful calibration of domestic liquidity. By draining excess liquidity through variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) operations, the RBI has increased short-term money market rates, making speculative currency bets less attractive.

3. India’s Forex Reserves: A Buffer and a Barometer

India’s foreign exchange reserves remain a key instrument in the RBI’s defensive playbook. After peaking at around USD 645 billion in 2021, reserves had dipped amid earlier interventions but have since rebounded to near USD 650 billion, giving the central bank substantial firepower to manage volatility.

Below is a summary of India’s forex reserve composition and its year-on-year change:
 

The steady increase in reserves highlights the RBI’s ability to absorb external shocks while maintaining investor confidence. A robust reserve position also acts as a deterrent to speculative trading, signalling that the RBI has sufficient capacity to counter sharp depreciation spells.

4. Policy Coordination: Balancing Inflation, Growth, and Currency Stability

The RBI’s foreign exchange interventions cannot be viewed in isolation; they are part of a broader macroeconomic management strategy. The central bank continues to maintain its focus on inflation targeting, with the consumer price index (CPI) hovering around the upper end of its tolerance band of 2–6%.

To strike the right balance between growth and stability, the RBI has maintained a moderately restrictive monetary stance. Liquidity adjustments through open market operations (OMOs) and targeted VRRR auctions ensure that domestic interest rates remain aligned with the currency defence objectives.

The Ministry of Finance has also been supportive, aligning external borrowing limits and maintaining fiscal prudence to avoid undue stress on the balance of payments. India’s current account deficit (CAD) is expected to remain manageable at around 1.5–2.0% of GDP for FY2025, aided by resilient service exports and inward remittances.

5. Comparative Perspective: India vs Other Emerging Markets

India’s measured approach stands in contrast to more aggressive tactics employed by other emerging market central banks. For instance, some Asian peers such as Indonesia and Thailand have used policy rate hikes alongside direct FX interventions, while others like South Korea have opted for macroprudential controls to curb capital flight.

The table below compares key currency management metrics among major emerging economies:
 

India’s relatively lower currency depreciation reflects the RBI’s proactive and well-calibrated intervention policy. Its deep forex reserves and prudent macroeconomic management have contributed to a more stable exchange rate environment compared to several other emerging peers.

6. Broader Implications: What This Means for Investors and the Economy

For foreign investors, a stable rupee reduces currency risk and supports portfolio inflows, especially in debt instruments. As the government plans to include Indian bonds in global indices from 2026, maintaining rupee stability will be vital to sustaining foreign appetite.

For domestic businesses, particularly import-dependent sectors, reduced exchange rate volatility helps in better pricing and procurement planning. Meanwhile, exporters benefit from a predictable, albeit competitive, exchange rate.

However, there is also a cost to continuous intervention, it can tighten domestic liquidity and push short-term borrowing costs higher. This makes the RBI’s balancing act all the more complex as it seeks to defend the rupee without stifling growth.

Conclusion: A Resilient Yet Watchful Central Bank

The Reserve Bank of India’s recent actions underscore its readiness to safeguard the rupee from speculative and global pressures while maintaining macroeconomic stability. The combination of offshore market intervention, ample forex reserves, and calibrated liquidity management demonstrates a sophisticated and evolving approach to currency defence.

As global conditions remain uncertain, the RBI’s challenge will be to sustain this delicate balance, ensuring the rupee remains resilient without compromising economic growth. Its success in doing so will not only bolster India’s financial stability but also reinforce investor confidence in one of the world’s most dynamic emerging economies.

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