India’s forex reserves cross USD 700 billion, RBI reports third straight weekly rise

Foreign exchange reserves are among the most closely watched indicators of a country’s external-sector strength and financial stability. In September 2025, India’s forex reserves crossed the symbolic and substantive milestone of USD 700 billion, marking a sustained accumulation over successive weeks. 

This article explores the recent trends, composition, underlying drivers, risks, and implications of this milestone. Through charts and tables, we provide a snapshot of reserve dynamics and conclude with what this means for India’s macro position.

Recent Trend: Crossing the USD 700 Billion Threshold

In the week ending September 12, 2025, India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by approximately USD 4.698 billion, bringing the total to USD 702.966 billion. This marked the third straight weekly rise in reserves and represented the first time in the recent cycle that reserves solidly breached the USD 700 billion mark.
Prior to that week, reserves had already shown upward momentum, with gains of USD 4.038 billion and USD 3.51 billion in the two preceding weeks, reinforcing a pattern of positive inflows.

This uptrend reflects not just a one-off surge but sustained accumulation, driven by a mixture of valuation effects, capital flows, and central bank interventions. The crossing of USD 700 billion also acts as a psychological and policy benchmark, signaling that India’s external buffers are rebuilding after periods of drawdown.

Composition of India’s Forex Reserves

To understand the quality and resilience of India’s reserves, it is useful to examine the breakdown of components.

Before we look at the table, note that India’s foreign exchange reserves typically consist of several categories—most prominently Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), Gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), and the Reserve Position with the IMF. The composition matters because liquidity, valuation risk, and utility differ across these components.

Here is a simplified table of recent composition (approximate values for the week ending September 12, 2025):
 

*Values are approximate and reflect data released by the central bank in the weekly supplement.

After the table, a few observations:
 

• The FCA component remains dominant, accounting for the lion’s share of reserves, and its weekly gain reflects both fresh inflows and valuation adjustments.
   
• The gold component’s notable rise suggests strong valuation gains given the recent wind-up in global precious metals markets, or possibly fresh gold accruals.
   
• In contrast, SDRs and the IMF reserve position contribute modestly to incremental movement, highlighting that the bulk of reserve growth comes from the “hard currency + gold” leg.
   

Overall, the composition indicates that the reserve build is not lopsided, and that liquidity and valuation buffers remain diversified.

Drivers Behind the Reserve Accumulation

Several interlocking factors have propelled this upward momentum in India’s forex reserves:
 

1. Capital and Portfolio Inflows
   India has continued to attract foreign portfolio investment into equities and debt. Even in volatile global conditions, the optics of economic resilience and yield differentials support these inflows, providing a steady source of foreign exchange inflow.
    
2. Valuation Gains on Existing Holdings
   Because a portion of reserves is held in non-USD currencies (e.g. euro, yen, pound) or in instruments whose domestic values may appreciate, favorable exchange rate changes and yield spreads contribute to “valuation” gains without fresh inflows.
    
3. Central Bank Intervention Strategy
   The Reserve Bank of India often intervenes in the foreign exchange market—buying dollars when the rupee is strong, and selling when it is under pressure. During periods of rupee weakening or external stress, the RBI may accumulate foreign assets (i.e. build reserves) to cushion volatility.
    
4. Trade and Current Account Trends
   A narrowing trade deficit or stable export performance also aids in reserve accumulation. For instance, in June 2025, India’s goods trade deficit was narrower than expected, partly due to reduced import volumes.
    
5. External Borrowing and Swap Lines
   Occasional usage of swap arrangements, loans, or currency lines with other central banks or multilateral agencies can influence reserve levels, though their net impact tends to be moderate relative to capital flows.
    

Taken together, these drivers reflect a mix of external demand, domestic policy calibration, and favorable market conditions.

Reserve Adequacy and Import Cover

A central consideration in evaluating forex reserves is how many months of imports they can cover. This “import cover” metric is critical as it reflects how long a country can sustain its import bill if inflows dry up.

In March 2025, India’s reserves provided around 11.1 months of import cover.
Analysts often cite that India’s current reserves cover 10 to 11 months of imports. In various statements, the government and central bank have also affirmed that the reserves are sufficient to meet 11 months of import needs.

While this level is respectable, it is not extremely generous by global benchmarks—some emerging economies target reserves sufficient for 12 or more months. Nevertheless, for India’s scale and import dependency, 10–11 months provides a meaningful cushion against external shocks.

Beyond import cover, another benchmark is the coverage of external debt. In recent RBI bulletins, the reserves have been said to cover up to 95% (or more) of India’s total external debt (depending on definition). This metric showcases that reserves are not just for trade continuity but also for liability management and credibility in international markets.

Hence, India’s reserve position is strong—not excessively aggressive, but well within safe margins given its macro fundamentals.

Risks, Challenges, and External Pressures

Even as India crosses the USD 700 billion mark, there are caveats and structural risks worth noting:
 

• Forward Dollar Obligations / Short Positions
  The RBI maintains forward contracts and dollar obligations to support the rupee in volatile times. These forward liabilities act as contingent drains on the reserves. Some analysts caution that when forward positions are netted off, the effective coverage is less comfortable.
   
• Valuation Risks
  A significant chunk of reserves is exposed to fluctuations in foreign interest rates, yield curves, and exchange rate movements. If global rates move sharply or base currencies depreciate, valuations could reverse.
   
• Sterilisation Costs and Opportunity Cost
  Accumulating reserves often involves sterilisation (via issuance of domestic bonds or absorption of liquidity), which carries a cost. Over time, the interest differential between earning on foreign assets and cost of domestic liabilities erodes net gains.
   
• Global Liquidity Tightening
  In periods where global capital becomes risk-averse (e.g. U.S. Federal Reserve tightening), emerging markets face capital outflows. Reserves built in benign times must act as shock absorbers in stressed periods.
   
• Import Bill Escalation
  If India’s energy and commodity import costs spike (as often happens), the import bill can rise sharply, reducing the effective import cover even with stable reserves.
   
• Exchange Rate Interventions
  Overzealous intervention to defend the rupee may deplete reserves. Striking the right balance between stability and preservation is a fine act for RBI.
   

Despite these risks, prudent management and structural policy buffers can mitigate downside pressure.

Implications for India’s Economy & Policy

Breaching USD 700 billion in reserves carries a number of meaningful policy and strategic implications:
 

1. External Credibility and Market Confidence
   High reserves signal to global investors that India has a cushion to absorb external shocks, which can lower risk premia, support sovereign ratings, and attract continued capital inflows.
    
2. Stabilisation of the Rupee
   With ample reserves, the RBI has greater flexibility to smooth volatile exchange rate movements—a crucial tool in the face of global currency turbulence.
    
3. Monetary Policy Autonomy
   Adequate reserves reduce dependence on external borrowing or emergency measures in crisis states, providing more freedom in domestic interest rate decision-making.
    
4. Support Against External Shocks
   In events like oil price surges, global credit squeeze, or a sudden stop in capital flows, reserves act as a buffer allowing continuity in trade payments and liquidity provision.
    
5. Enhanced External Liquidity
   India can potentially engage more assertively in swap markets, currency lines, and regional support mechanisms, leveraging its strong reserve position.
    
6. Policy Signaling
   Crossing this benchmark also comes with political and strategic symbolism: it signals that India’s external finances have regained strength after prior drawdowns.
    

Yet, with such power comes responsibility: maintaining reserve health, avoiding overextension, and ensuring that accumulation is sustainable rather than episodic.

Conclusion

India’s foreign exchange reserves crossing the USD 700 billion mark is a notable landmark in the country’s external sector trajectory. Driven by a mix of portfolio inflows, valuation gains, trade dynamics, and central bank strategy, the reserves now represent a robust buffer that covers nearly 11 months of imports and a large share of external liabilities.

However, the achievement should not lead to complacency. Forward obligations, valuation swings, and global liquidity shifts remain real challenges. Going forward, the task for RBI and policymakers will be to preserve reserve quality, manage interventions judiciously, and guard against overreach.

In sum, while crossing USD 700 billion is a milestone, the real test is in sustaining and deploying that strength as India navigates global volatility, domestic growth imperatives, and strategic ambitions.

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