Rate Cut Could Be A Close Call As RBI Eyes Lower CPI And Growth Balance

With inflation cooling and growth steady, the RBI faces a tight call on whether to trim policy rates again in October 2025.

Can lower food prices alone decide the cost of borrowing in India? In June 2025, retail inflation slipped to 2.10 percent, its lowest level in six years. 

The fall came at a time when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had already cut rates by a full percentage point in 2025. Now, as the Monetary Policy Committee prepares for its October 2025 review, the RBI interest rate cut decision 2025 has become a sharp debate.

Latest Development On Policy And Inflation

The Reserve Bank of India has already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points in 2025. This included a large 50 basis point cut in June 2025, which brought the policy rate down to 5.50 percent. 

The move came after the RBI’s June 2025 policy report noted a steep fall in consumer prices. According to data released in July 2025, headline retail inflation dropped from 2.82 percent in May 2025 to 2.10 percent in June 2025. Vegetable prices fell nearly 19 percent year-on-year, pulling down the index.

This steep moderation in CPI has fuelled hopes of another rate cut. However, the RBI has also shifted its stance to neutral, signalling that every move will now depend on new numbers. Banks such as SBI Research have argued for a 25 basis point cut, while others suggest waiting for transmission of earlier cuts.
 

The above table traces the rate path in 2025. It shows that the RBI has already acted in three rounds. Each cut was driven by softer inflation prints, but the pace has also made analysts question how much space is left.

What is CPI Inflation And Monetary Policy?

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the basket that measures changes in retail prices of goods and services. It is the official benchmark for inflation in India. Monetary policy is the set of steps taken by the RBI to control this inflation. The main tool is the repo rate, which is the rate at which banks borrow money from the RBI. Lowering the repo rate usually reduces borrowing costs and encourages spending. Raising the repo rate is done to cool price rises.

In the Monetary Policy Report of August 2025, the RBI lowered its full-year CPI inflation forecast for FY 2025-26 from 3.7 percent to 3.1 percent. This revision reflected the sharp drop in food prices during June 2025
 

The data shows that actual CPI numbers have undershot forecasts. For policymakers, this means there is room to act. Yet core inflation, which removes food and fuel, has not eased as sharply. That is why some experts argue that cutting rates further could risk imported inflation through a weaker rupee.

Growth Outlook And Link With Past Coverage

The Reserve Bank of India growth outlook update has kept its real GDP growth projection steady at 6.5 percent for FY 2025-26. The June 2025 monetary policy statement gave a quarterly forecast of 6.5 percent in Q1, 6.7 percent in Q2, 6.6 percent in Q3, and 6.3 percent in Q4. 

At the same time, official data released by the government showed that GDP growth in Q4 of FY 2024-25 was 7.4 percent, compared with 6.4 percent in Q3 of FY 2024-25.
 

The table points to a steady growth picture. It also shows that RBI has not revised growth down despite global challenges. This connects with a previous article on this site covering GST reforms and their effect on inflation: [link to published article]. 

That story explained how GST rationalisation could cut CPI prints by 25 to 50 basis points in the medium term. When linked to the current RBI monetary policy and rate cut debate, both stories show how fiscal reforms and monetary policy interact.

How RBI And Government Reacted In Past Years

History shows that RBI does not always cut rates just because inflation is soft. In 2019, despite low inflation, the central bank waited several months before resuming cuts. In 2020, during the pandemic, the approach was different. 

The RBI cut the repo rate quickly and sharply to support the economy. The 2025 story sits between these two cases. The bank has already cut by 100 basis points but is cautious about more.
 

This table shows how the central bank has reacted in different years. In 2019, caution was the theme. In 2020, urgency drove policy. In 2025, the tone is mixed, balancing inflation softness with growth stability.

Wider Risks That Shape The Debate

The Indian economy’s steady growth and relatively balanced CPI trends may appear reassuring, but risks remain visible. Global trade tensions have revived the threat of tariffs. Private investment has not picked up at the expected pace. The rupee too has come under pressure in recent weeks, raising the risk of imported inflation if global oil prices move higher. These concerns weigh on the timing of any rate cut.

Some experts believe the Reserve Bank of India could rely more on liquidity tools rather than immediately cutting the repo rate. Instruments such as the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) or Open Market Operations allow liquidity to be managed without adding strain on the currency. As LoansJagat reported in “RBI Announces Two-Day Reverse Repo Rate Auction Starting July 9”, the central bank has already been using reverse repo auctions to fine-tune liquidity in the system. 

This approach reflects a careful balancing act, supporting growth while remaining alert to external shocks and inflationary pressures.

Conclusion

The RBI’s October 2025 policy decision is set against falling inflation and steady growth. The RBI interest rate cut decision 2025 is not a straight call. India CPI inflation and monetary policy theory shows there is space to ease, but the Reserve Bank of India growth outlook update stresses caution. 

Past experience also shows that the RBI monetary policy and rate cut debate is rarely settled in one meeting. The Indian economy steady growth and CPI trends give comfort today, but global and currency risks still weigh on the table.

 

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About the Author

Siddhanshi Sharma

Siddhanshi Sharma is a reader's writer, like there is a director's actor. She has trained herself to understand the reader's intent and their queries. With over 4+ years of experience in the content writing industry. Siddhanshi has authored many blogs and articles for several BFSI organisations. While you are reading this blog, she is probably reading her blogs to identify some more mistakes that she overlooked.