RBI May Keep Call Rates and TREPS Below Repo: What It Means for Rate Cut Expectations

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears willing to allow short-term market interest rates to remain below the policy repo rate, signalling a calibrated liquidity strategy rather than an immediate tightening stance. Recent market trends show overnight borrowing costs, particularly the call money rate and TREPS (Tri-Party Repo), trading softer despite evolving liquidity conditions.

This development matters because overnight rates act as the first signal of monetary policy transmission. If they remain below the repo rate, it indicates that liquidity conditions are still supportive, even when rate-cut expectations are uncertain.

Why Call Rates and TREPS Matter?

The call money rate represents the cost at which banks borrow funds overnight from each other, while TREPS reflects secured overnight borrowing backed by government securities. These rates collectively show how tight or comfortable liquidity is within the banking system.

Market participants closely monitor these indicators because they influence short-term funding costs across financial markets. Traders often treat movements in overnight rates as an early indicator of the RBI’s future policy direction.

Historically, when liquidity is abundant, these rates trade below the repo rate. When liquidity tightens, they move closer to or above it.

Current Trend: Rates Still Below Policy Signals

Recent data shows the call rate averaged around 5% in February and about 5.29% in March, even as liquidity tightened due to advance tax outflows and RBI’s foreign-exchange interventions.

The repo rate currently stands at 5.25%, forming the midpoint of the RBI’s policy corridor.

Despite periodic liquidity pressures, analysts expect the central bank to ensure overnight rates do not rise significantly above the repo rate. The objective is simple: prevent an unintended tightening of financial conditions that could push borrowing costs higher across the economy.

RBI’s Liquidity Strategy Explained

The RBI uses liquidity tools — including repos, reverse repos, and market operations — to keep the weighted average call rate aligned with its policy stance.

Allowing call and TREPS rates to stay slightly below the repo rate suggests the RBI wants:

• Smooth transmission of past rate cuts
• Stable funding costs for banks
• Continued credit flow to businesses and households

A persistent gap where overnight rates stay lower typically indicates adequate liquidity in the system, reducing stress in money markets.

This approach also prevents sudden spikes in deposit or lending rates, which could slow economic momentum.

What This Means for Rate Cut Outlook

Markets often interpret softer overnight rates as a sign that the central bank is