Car-Loan Delinquencies Expected to Stay Flat in 2026: TransUnion

According to credit bureau TransUnion, car-loan delinquency rates in the U.S. are likely to show little change through 2026 compared with current levels. This suggests that many American households are stabilising their finances after the economic disruptions of the pandemic.

What TransUnion Forecasts

TransUnion’s annual Consumer Credit Forecast predicts that serious auto delinquencies — defined as loans that are 60 days or more past due — will be around 1.54% by the end of 2026. This is only a very small rise from the estimated 1.51% at year-end 2025, an increase of just 3 basis points (0.03 percentage points).

This projected flat trend means that lenders and economists don’t expect a big jump in car owners falling behind on payments for the coming year. The modest rise reflects a situation where most borrowers are managing to make their monthly payments on time, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs.

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What Is Driving the Forecast?

TransUnion’s vice president Michele Raneri noted that the U.S. is still working through the effects of the pandemic on credit and personal finances. Early in the pandemic, government stimulus checks, foreclosure and repossession moratoriums, and student-loan forgiveness helped keep delinquency rates lower than they might otherwise have been. But as those supports have faded, delinquency rates have rebounded.

However, the rebound has not been dramatic. Instead, the expectation is that delinquencies have plateaued: higher than the pandemic lows, but not surging further. If this trend holds, it could signal that households are adapting to the “new normal” of borrowing and repayment, and that many of the pandemic-related income disruptions have been resolved.

Why This Matters

Car-loan delinquencies are an important financial signal. When people fall behind on auto payments, it can point to wider economic stress — such as job losses, rising living costs, or tightening credit conditions.

Also Read : Used Car Loan Interest Rate

A flattening of delinquencies through 2026 suggests that consumers — even those with auto loans — may be gradually regaining financial stability. It also helps lenders and investors gauge risk in auto financing portfolios. Stable delinquency rates mean that loan defaults may not spike suddenly, helping banks and credit unions plan ahead.

What It Does Not Say

This forecast doesn’t suggest delinquency rates will fall significantly (for example, back to pre-pandemic low levels), or that economic challenges like inflation are over. It simply presents the expectation that rates will remain roughly where they are today, with only slight increases.