India’s Economy Forecast to Grow 7.6% in FY26 Under New Data Series

India’s economy is now expected to grow faster than previously thought in the financial year 2025–26 (FY26), according to newly released government data under a revised GDP measurement framework. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has updated the way it calculates GDP by shifting the base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23 to better reflect current economic structure and activity.

Under this new GDP series, the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) — which adjusts for inflation — is estimated to expand by 7.6% in FY26, higher than the earlier estimate of 7.4% released in January under the old base year. The nominal GDP, which is measured without adjusting for price changes, is now projected to grow 8.6% during the same period.

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The revised growth outlook is based on the second advance estimates prepared by MoSPI. These figures show that growth has remained resilient above 7% for three consecutive years, despite global economic uncertainty. In the earlier years, the economy grew 7.2% in FY24 and 7.1% in FY25, according to the new data series.

Sector Performance Insights

The updated methodology shows that the manufacturing sector stood out with stronger performance, now estimated to have grown by 11.5% in FY26, significantly higher than earlier estimates. Meanwhile, both the secondary sector (which includes manufacturing, construction, utilities) and the tertiary sector (services such as trade, transport, financial services) are reported to have posted stronger growth rates above 9%. However, the primary sector, which includes agriculture, is projected to grow more modestly at around 2.6%.

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Growth Drivers and Demand Picture

The growth in FY26 is not coming from a single source. On the demand side, both consumer spending and investment are contributing to the stronger growth outlook. Household spending (measured as Private Final Consumption Expenditure) and investment in fixed assets (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) are both showing healthy increases, indicating that both consumption and capital expenditure are supporting the expansion.

Outlook for FY27

Based on this newly released data and revised growth performance, the Chief Economic Advisor has also adjusted the growth forecast for the next fiscal year (FY27) to between 7% and 7.4%, up from earlier projections under the old GDP series.

In simple terms: India’s economy is now estimated to grow at 7.6% in FY26, slightly above earlier estimates, thanks to better measurement methods and stronger performance in manufacturing, services, consumption, and investment — highlighting the country’s continued economic momentum.