RBI Keeps Repo Rate At 5.25% As Neutral Stance Signals Wait-And-Watch

India’s central bank has left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, choosing caution as oil risks, inflation worries and global volatility cloud the near-term outlook.

The Reserve Bank of India on 8 April 2026 kept the repo rate at 5.25% and maintained the policy stance at neutral. The decision was widely expected, but the tone was more cautious than comfortable. 

Global tensions, higher crude prices and pressure on the rupee have made the outlook tougher for policymakers. Reuters reported that the move was unanimous, with all 6 MPC members voting for a hold. Livemint and Indian Express also reported the unchanged rate and neutral stance soon after the announcement.

Growth Outlook Softens As Inflation Risks Stay Elevated
 

The core story is that the central bank is trying to avoid a wrong move at a difficult time. Reuters said the growth forecast for FY27 was placed at 6.9%, down from 7.6% in the previous year, while CPI inflation was projected at 4.6% and core inflation at 4.4%. 

That keeps inflation within the 2% to 6% band, but still above the 4% target. Reuters also said financial markets showed limited disruption after the decision, which points to a largely priced-in outcome.
 

For retail borrowers, the pause means rates are not rising immediately, but they are not falling either. LoansJagat wrote on 7 April 2026 that home loan borrowers were likely to see an EMI pause, not relief, because a status quo policy would keep loan servicing costs broadly unchanged for now. 

Previous Development On This

Before the April policy, most economists had already moved to a hold call. Reuters reported on 6 April 2026 that all but 2 of 71 economists expected the repo rate to remain at 5.25%. Another Reuters poll cited by LoansJagat said 69 of 71 economists expected no change.

The policy backdrop had also shifted in the days before the meeting. Reuters reported on 7 April 2026 that the banking system liquidity surplus stood near ₹4 trillion, while the weighted average call money rate had slipped below 5.10% and the secured overnight rate was around 4.80%. 

That suggested liquidity conditions were already easy. On the market side, Reuters said on 8 April 2026 that the Nifty 50 rose 3.58% to 23,953.80 and the Sensex climbed 3.74% to 77,408.32, helped by easing geopolitical fears and the policy hold.
 

All but 2 of 71 economists expected no rate change

Reuters, 6 April 2026

Liquidity surplus near ₹4 trillion

Reuters, 7 April 2026

Nifty 23,953.80, Sensex 77,408.32 after policy

Reuters, 8 April 2026

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